I don’t care that Allan Lichtman sticks to his confident prediction that Kamala Harris will win the race for the White House. He just wouldn’t budge. And I’m not basing my prophecy on FiveThirtyEight’s simulations, which currently give Trump 516 wins out of 1,000 vs. Harris winning 481 times out of 1,000, with 3 tie situations. I don’t care about other aggregators, but even if I don’t, I’d mention a few of them: Kalshi gives Trump 57% vs. Harris 43%; Election Betting Odds gives Trump 56.9% and Harris 42.6%. PredictIt, a completely stupid website, shows the bets at 56¢ for Trump vs. 49¢ for Harris (I don’t know how these add up), or maybe 48¢ for Harris, or 56¢ vs. 48¢ when you count Republican vs. Democrats (who the fuck was the retarded that created this shit of a site?).

Screw the polls, and screw the markets. I just believe I have a reasonably accurate representation of the American psyche.

When Scott Adams, the creator of Dilbert, first predicted in August 2015 that Donald Trump would win the 2016 elections, I agreed with him. You see, back then, Scott Adams wasn’t the rabid Trumpist that he is today. While he was still a reasonable, decent individual, Adams merely based his prediction on the way Trump was using persuasion and influence, fields in which Adams has quite some qualifications (he’s even a certified hypnotist).

We should nonetheless agree that today’s Trump is not the Trump of 2015-2016. Instead of a highly skilled persuader using techniques that resonate with many voters, he’s now an individual with an obvious cognitive decline bordering dementia, with an ever-increasing narcissistic personality disorder, and whose mythomania went off the charts. And yet, enough people will vote for him so that the electors will get him elected. This electors-based system is medieval, but this is how America is.

Obama becoming President was a miracle. Harris won’t be a second miracle. Not now, not in America. As a side note, Obama was the hugest disappointment in the history of the American Presidents, at least before Trump. Listen to Norman Finkelstein explaining to Glenn Loury why Obama was a complete fraud (make sure you go from 1:09:01 through 1:38:10).

This year, I’ve been thoroughly following the American politics, which included, among others, hunting on YouTube all the segments belonging to The Daily Show (Jon Stewart, Desi Lydic, Michael Kosta, Jordan Klepper, Ronny Chieng), Stephen Colbert, and Jimmy Kimmel. I don’t like Seth Meyers, and I stopped watching Bill Maher after October 7, when he revealed his sick Semitic Nazism. (I stopped watching John Oliver years ago, but he seems to be avoiding the Trump vs. Harris issues anyway.) I’ve listened to the other side too, because you can find anything and everything on YouTube.

My feeling is that we (and by “we” I mean “they, the Democrats”) are laughing out loud and mocking Trump more like a form of intellectual masturbation. This won’t make any Trumpist change their vote! No matter how mentally deranged is Trump, his voters will keep their faith. They won’t get to reason, and they won’t vote for the smaller evil, which is Kamala Harris.

It doesn’t help that Kamala Harris isn’t very persuasive herself. A blackish Democrat woman whose economic program is a pathetic patchwork, but at least is not poised to ruin the country and the world through the catastrophic decisions Trump is likely to take? Why would Americans use their brains? A highly uncultured nation sensible to disinformation, with propensity towards magical thinking and medieval Christian dogmas?

Those TV shows that are mocking Trump can’t change a thing. Do you believe that George Carlin’s takes on religion have led to anyone becoming an atheist? This is not how it works. The same way you can’t make a teenager think the way you’d want them to think, you can’t make a religious person stop believing in a God through logic. You can give everyone all the available information; but unless they themselves decide that the truth is different from their previous beliefs, they just won’t change their minds. People who believe in Trump, even if merely out of hate for the Democrats, will vote for him, amen.

So, brace for a second Trump Administration. Why not, prepare for a JD Vance one, à la LBJ’s.

Also, get used to the idea that Europe, Ukraine, ROC Taiwan, the Philippines, and Japan won’t get the same military support from the United States as before the second reign of Trump. I suppose Israel would still get everything they want, which won’t help at all. Russia, China, Iran, DPRK will increase their presence in the news reports. Embrace the new world! But if you’re a European, be aware that tough times are ahead.

Over and out.

Too bad this won’t happen