As he threatened two days ago, Trump has imposed an incredible tariff on China: 50% atop the original 34%. But this 84% additional tariff means that all goods from China will be subject to a tariff of at least 104%!

Let Them Tariffs Come to Me

Even the previous tariffs were also of Trump’s making. Before the previous trade war with China started in 2018, the average US tariff on Chinese goods was relatively low—around 3-4%, based on WTO rules. During Trump’s first term, he imposed tariffs of 15%, with some specific goods facing 25% rates. The Phase One trade deal with China might have eased the tariffs on some goods, but I’m not an expert on such matters.

The “at least 104%” estimation conveyed by the press agencies only takes into account the 2025 trade war, which started with a 10% baseline on all Chinese goods in February (“Imposing Duties to Address the Synthetic Opioid Supply Chain in the People’s Republic of China” EO 14195), then with an additional 10% in March (“Further Amendment to Duties Addressing the Synthetic Opioid Supply Chain in the People’s Republic of China” EO 14228). Yesterday’s “Amendment to Reciprocal Tariffs and Updated Duties as Applied to Low-Value Imports from the People’s Republic of China” adds 84%:

Sec. 2.  Tariff Increase.  In recognition of the fact that the PRC has announced that it will retaliate against the United States in response to Executive Order 14257, the HTSUS shall be modified as follows.  Effective with respect to goods entered for consumption, or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption, on or after 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on April 9, 2025:  
(a)  heading 9903.01.63 of the HTSUS shall be amended by deleting “34%” each place that it appears and by inserting “84%” in lieu thereof; and
(b)  subdivision (v)(xiii)(10) of U.S. note 2 to subchapter III of chapter 99 of the HTSUS shall be amended by deleting “34%”, and inserting “84%” in lieu thereof.

So the baseline for China is 104%, plus whatever was already in place!

Rock-Paper-Scissors-Steel

Now, suppose a US manufacturer wants to import steel from China. The following tariffs would be applied, sequentially:

  1. Section 301 Tariffs (2018-2020): I’m not sure that I navigated correctly the “China Section 301-Tariff Actions and Exclusion Process,” but I noticed changes from 15% to 7.5%, to finally find in “Notice of Final Modifications – September 18, 2024” this mention: “With respect to tariff increases, the President directed increases on the following products: Steel and aluminum products—Increase rate to 25% in 2024.” Knowing that HTS 7208.xx.xxxx “Flat-rolled products of iron or nonalloy steel” and 7213/7215.xx.xxxx “Bars and rods of iron or nonalloy steel” don’t impose extra tariffs, I suppose the tariff on steel was indeed 25% for China when Trump started his second term.
  2. The 25% steel-specific tariff under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, as per Presidential Proclamation 10896, “Adjusting Imports of Steel Into the United States,” which applies to all countries.
  3. The 20% fentanyl-related China-specific tariff as of March 2025, already mentioned as having had two steps.
  4. This additional 84% China-specific tariff, effective today, April 9, 2025.

So, 1.25×1.25×1.2×1.84=3.45, meaning a 245% tariff on Chinese steel! Such tariffs are applied successively, not summed up, in which case they would have been 25+25+20+84=154%.

Why is that so? Because they’re all “ad valorem” tariffs, meaning they’re “applied to the previously calculated value,” including any prior duties, unless explicitly stated otherwise. It does not mean “applied to the original customs value and added to running total.” “Ad valorem” is not just a superfluous term to mean “according to value.” It’s meant to differentiate such a tariff from the two other types of tariffs: “specific” or fixed (say, $5 per ton), which are still compoundable, and “non-compounding” or calculated only on the original customs value, not the value inflated by prior duties.

This is fucking crazy.

It’s now 125%!

A last-minute update! El fukkko says he will raise tariff rate on Chinese imports to 125%!

I won’t redo the above calculations. But it has been confirmed that this actually means 145% once the 20% fentanyl-related tariff is added.

For the rest of the world, though, there’s a 90-day pause of the tariffs. The baseline 10% tariff will however be implemented. The official motivation:

Based on the lack of respect that China has shown to the World’s Markets, I am hereby raising the Tariff charged to China by the United States of America to 125%, effective immediately. At some point, hopefully in the near future, China will realize that the days of ripping off the U.S.A., and other Countries, is no longer sustainable or acceptable. Conversely, and based on the fact that more than 75 Countries have called Representatives of the United States, including the Departments of Commerce, Treasury, and the USTR, to negotiate a solution to the subjects being discussed relative to Trade, Trade Barriers, Tariffs, Currency Manipulation, and Non Monetary Tariffs, and that these Countries have not, at my strong suggestion, retaliated in any way, shape, or form against the United States, I have authorized a 90 day PAUSE, and a substantially lowered Reciprocal Tariff during this period, of 10%, also effective immediately.

One of the real reasons Trump has decided a pause (bar for the 10%) might be JPMorgan’s CEO Jamie Dimon interview on ‘Mornings with Maria,’ in which he said that a recession is “a likely outcome” of the new tariffs. While affirming that it was “perfectly reasonable” to conclude that “global trade was unfair,” thus siding with Trump, Dimon also encouraged both Trump and foreign leaders to “negotiate some trade deals.” Apparently, “Markets aren’t always right, but sometimes they are right.”

Let’s see world leaders come to humiliate themselves in Washington, DC, or at Mar-a-Lago.

But China too rised its tariffs on US products to 84%, up from its previously announced 34%, starting April 10, according to this announcement in Chinese by the Office of the Tariff Commission of the State Council!

Negotiating with the bully?

So 50 or almost 70 countries apparently expressed their intention to negotiate with this retard. And here’s what this piece of shit told the National Republican Congressional Committee Dinner just hours before midnight:

I’m telling you, these countries are calling us up, kissing my ass. They are. They are dying to make a deal. ‘Please, please, Sir, make a deal. I’ll do anything. I’ll do anything, sir!’

This is the garbage the Prime Minister of Japan wants to negotiate with? This is who Giorgia Meloni wants to talk to on April 17? “Japan was promptly bumped to the front of the queue, and Mr Trump has indicated that he will be directly involved in the trade talks. Japanese officials are now assembling a package designed to appeal to America’s president. On the table is not just trade, but investment and military spending. Japan’s offer is likely to include more purchases of American liquefied natural gas, investment in an Alaskan pipeline Mr Trump favours, additional arms imports and looser restrictions on American farm goods and cars—most of which are already covered by a bilateral agreement Mr Trump signed during his first term. Mr Trump has since boasted of a similar suite of concessions from South Korea, following a call with Han Duck-soo, its acting president.”

Surprisingly enough, after all those contradictory messages, “EU member states approved on Wednesday 25% tariffs on a wide range of US products, including almonds, orange juice, poultry, soyabeans, steel and aluminium, tobacco and yachts, in retaliation against 25% tariffs imposed by the US on imports of steel and aluminium from the bloc.” However, “France, Ireland and Italy secured the removal of Bourbon whiskey from the list of targeted products, after Trump threatened that its inclusion would trigger counter-imposition of a 200% tariff on European alcohol.”

This is a weak first wave of retaliation from the EU.

After Trump’s last-minute 90-day suspension (not for China!) that keeps a 10% tariff in place, in a Statement by President von der Leyen on US tariffs, as well as in a tweet, Queen Ursula of Europe welcomed Trump’s tariff pause, offered one more time “a zero-for-zero tariff agreement between the European Union and the United States,” and made no mention of further countermeasures, despite the blanket 10% rate not being suspended. “The European Commission will now take the necessary time to assess this latest development, in close consultation with our member States and industry, before deciding on next steps,” a spokesperson said (spokespeople have no gender and no sex, but might still be humans).

UPDATE: The EU will also pause for 90 days any countermeasures, despite the announced counter-tariffs being only in response to Trump’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium:

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On the other hand, China will raise its retaliatory tariff on the US to 84%, up from 34%, effective from April 10. Previously, China’s Ministry of Commerce said:

The US’ threat to escalate tariffs on China is a grave mistake on top of an existing one, which once again exposes the US’ blackmail nature. China will never accept this. If the US insists on its own way, China will fight to the end.

And again:

If the US insists on further escalating its economic and trade restrictions, China has the firm will and abundant means to take necessary countermeasures and fight to the end.

China reiterated that there are no winners in a trade war, hinting at a previous mentioning of Reagan’s opinions:

The same Ministry of Commerce:

I want to emphasize that there is no winner in a trade war, and China does not want a trade war, but the Chinese government will by no means sit by when the legitimate rights and interests of its people are being hurt and deprived.

Apparently, China is not currently keen to negotiate–not in such conditions:

If the US side truly wants to resolve issues through dialogue and negotiation, it should show an attitude of equality, respect, and mutual benefit. If the US side disregards the interests of the two countries and the international community and insists on waging a tariff war and a trade war, China’s response will continue to the end, Lin said.

This is the right thing to do!

On the other hand, surprisingly or not, China began censoring some tariff-related content on social media: “Hashtags and searches for ‘tariff’ or ‘104’ were mostly blocked on social media platform Weibo, with pages showing an error message.” This suggests that the CPC tries to avoid any panic among the population.

Experts cited by South China Morning Post admit that “China was facing serious challenges to social and economic stability that were mostly domestic and had little to do with the US, referring to the country’s slowing economic growth,” and that “a trade war between the world’s two largest economies would most likely worsen China’s domestic economic situation.” However, “it would be unlikely that China would see mass protests over issues such as rising prices.” Unfortunately, “Chinese companies and local governments may lack the creativity to respond to a tariff war, as they rely on directives from the powerful central government.” Shi Yinhong, a professor at the School of International Studies at Renmin University in Beijing: “Under China’s system of concentrated power and corresponding ideological tradition, there is little room for initiative, creativity and exploration in society except at the top leadership level.” Oops.

And yet, I put my bets and my hopes on China.

Because all the others are yielding to the blackmailing! An example: while China Halts US LNG Imports for Longest Since Last Trade War, other Asian Nations Promise to Buy More US Gas to Win Tariff Relief. They still don’t get it!

It’s impossible to meet Trump’s requirements.

In his retarded mind, the US should have a level trade balance with each of the other countries on Earth! And this is not only absurd, but also a practical impossibility! If Madagascar exports raw nickel, vanilla, cloves, and gold to the US for, say, $700 million, it should buy US products of the same value. Really? And if Vietnam exports clothing and apparel to the US for $20 billion, how are they supposed to import from the US for the same amount? By the way, Vietnam is accounting for around 6.4% of global textile and apparel exports. China makes more than 40% of global textile and apparel exports. Such manufacturing cannot “return to the US”!

What next?

If Xi Jinping cannot beat Donald Trump, nobody can. And China should be able to do it because, in my view, it’s already the world’s first economy.

Forget about the GDP, about the PPP, and all that crap. It’s not an accurate measurement of value, and not a correct depiction of reality.

I’ll reiterate my oversimplified example (taken from here, but previously invoked here in a different form):

A product that leaves China for $1 and retails in the US for $12 (+ Sales Tax) adds about $10 to the GDP of the US, even though the entire value is produced in China.

To me, this is a way of saying that China’s real GDP is not below that of the US, but several times that of the US! No measure of GDP (PPP-adjusted, etc.) accurately models reality.

Heck, I just discovered some screenshots in an older post of mine:

Meanwhile, they have added the AI to the list.

Now, of course, the question is: Who will blink first?

A last point: do the following experiment. Go to a shopping mall or to a hypermarket (superstore, whatever). Ignore the foodstuff and make a list of 100 different items. How many of them are not made in China, Vietnam, or other such countries? 10, maybe?

Follow-ups

Trump, yesterday:

China wants to make a deal. They just don’t know how quite to go about it. You know, it’s one of those things, quite proud people. President Xi is a proud man. I know him very well. They don’t know quite how to go about it, but they’ll figure it out. They’re in the process of figuring it out.

He added:

I think President Xi is a man who knows exactly what needs to be done. He’s a very smart man. He loves his country. I know that for a fact. I know him very well. And I think he’s going to want to make a deal. I think that’s going to happen. We’ll get a phone call at some point, and everything will be ready. It is going to be a great thing for us, the world and for the humanity.

Trump is hallucinating big time.

Take this China Daily editorial: China will never submit to tariff despotism:

In fact the US is going to the extreme to try to bring China to its knees in the trade war it has initiated. …

But caving in to the US pressure is out of the question for Beijing. It is a core tenet of the country’s external work, based on the lessons learned from history, that it should never be deterred by intimidation, swayed by fallacies, or cowed by pressure. Going forward, it knows it will face an even more severe international situation and more complex external environment, and that only by having the courage and ability to overcome difficulties and obstacles can it continue to forge ahead. The country will therefore continue to display its indomitable spirit and make tenacious efforts to open up new horizons for its modernization journey. In the same vein, China also knows that on major issues of right and wrong, it is imperative to uphold principles.

The US administration’s reliance on coercion through tariffs is an ill-conceived and misguided power play that only leads to a dead-end. History shows that there are no true winners in trade or tariff wars, because by nature they are ultimately harmful to all. The US’ abusive use of tariffs not only infringes on the legitimate rights and interests of China but also those of other countries.

…

This unilateral, protectionist and coercive approach has quite rightly been met with widespread opposition from the international community. China, rather than appeasement, has taken a clear stand on the side of fairness and justice, and the progressive side of history. It is not that China does not understand what the unprecedentedly high tariffs mean for its exports and the economy in general. Profits of export-oriented industries will take a blow and the resulting decline in manufacturing investment and consumer sentiment will dampen economic growth. But it also knows that kowtowing to the US’ tariff bullying will gain it nothing, given that it is no secret the US is now intent on cutting China out of its consumer market and reshaping the global supply chains to serve its own narrow interests.

But even a sharp decline in exports to the US will not fatally damage China’s overall economy. Thanks to China’s efforts at diversifying markets in recent years, the US accounted for 14.7 percent of the country’s total exports last year, down from 19.2 percent in 2018. Which means China has the capability to prevail in this “trade war of attrition.” On the other hand, the damage the tariff war is inflicting on the US economy is becoming severer with each passing day.

…

But despite assertions from the White House about it being open to dialogue with Beijing, the actions of the US administration do not currently reflect a genuine commitment to engaging in constructive discussions with China. If the US administration truly desires meaningful dialogue with Beijing, it must demonstrate a willingness to negotiate on the basis of equality and mutual respect. Resorting to demeaning and derogatory language, even if it is just intended for domestic consumption by perpetuating a skewed narrative about China and its people, does not serve as an invitation to dialogue. Nor are intimidation, threats, and blackmail conducive to productive engagement with China. Beijing is not seeking conflict, but it will stand resolute in the face of adversity. As always, it is prepared to take all necessary measures to defend the country’s legitimate development rights and interests.

It is never too late for the US to mend its way and work with China to find a feasible solution to bilateral trade and economic disputes. But in the event that the US administration remains steadfast in pursuing a tariff and trade war to advance its zero-sum objectives, China stands prepared to resist its modern gunboat diplomacy.

So no, Xi will not come kiss Trump’s beautiful ass!

Xi Jinping, on April 8:

To use a metaphor, the Chinese economy is not a pond, but an ocean. The ocean may have its calm days, but big winds and storms are only to be expected. Without them, the ocean wouldn’t be what it is. Big winds and storms may upset a pond but never an ocean. Having experienced numerous winds and storms, the ocean will still be there.

On the other hand, Eurasia Group China director Dan Wang said that “any tariff upwards of 35% will wipe out all the profits that Chinese businesses make when exporting to the US or South East Asia.” Therefore, China has the ‘leverage to retaliate’ and nothing to lose:

Currently, the profit margin for China’s export sector is around 30 to 40 per cent. If the US imposes tariffs exceeding 35 per cent, it would wipe out most of their profits – whether the tariff is 70 per cent or even 1,000 per cent makes little difference, as it essentially blocks China from trading directly with the US. China will certainly retaliate; it won’t back down.

A CNN analysis quotes Jacob Gunter, lead economy analyst at Berlin-based think tank MERICS:

Xi has been very clear for a very long time that he expects China will enter a period of protracted struggle with the United States and its allies, that China needed to prepare for that, and they have quite extensively. Xi Jinping has accepted that the gauntlet is thrown down, and they are ready to put up a fight.

CNN also cites from a commentary in People’s Daily:

In response to US tariffs, we are prepared and have strategies. We have engaged in a trade war with the US for eight years, accumulating rich experience in these struggles. … The plans to respond are well-prepared and ample.

Finally, economist Cai Tongjuan of China’s Renmin University, from another op-ed:

The ultimate outcome hinges on who can withstand a longer ‘economic war of attrition.’ And China clearly holds a greater advantage in terms of strategic endurance.

Scott Kennedy, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank in the US:

(China’s) weaknesses are significant, but in the context of an all-out brawl, these are manageable. The US is not going to be able to, on its own, bring China’s economy to the edge of destruction. As much as Washington doesn’t want to admit it, when China says you can’t contain China economically, they have a point.

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Indeed, you cannot contain China. From China’s great green march across the globe in The Straits Times, Singapore:

China is the world’s top greenhouse gas polluter, contributing about a third of mankind’s total annual carbon emissions.

Yet, it is also the world’s top producer of clean energy and a major global investor. Since 2023, Chinese clean-tech companies have entered into over 180 deals worldwide worth US$141 billion (S$188 billion).

…

The US imposed a new round of anti-dumping duties on solar panel imports from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam in November 2024.

The punishing taxes of between 21.31 per cent and 271.2 per cent have already bitten some Chinese solar makers.

…

Given the rising barriers from developed countries, Chinese businesses are focused on the developing world, which is now the largest market for their solar, wind and EV exports, according to Comtrade data.

Chinese companies are finding these host countries, including Indonesia, happy to accept their know-how in clean tech – along with investments and factories that create local jobs and tax revenue – and the help in transitioning from fossil fuels.

“It’s a win for the recipient countries, because they are getting factories, wind farms, solar farms, batteries and real jobs. A lot of them are getting research and development centres as well,” said Mr Tim Buckley, director of Sydney-based think-tank Climate Energy Finance (CEF).

…

Since the start of 2023, more than 180 deals worth more than US$141 billion have been announced – and the number grows by the week. They include joint ventures and direct investments in energy projects.

The deals range from multibillion-dollar battery ventures in Europe and wind farms in Australia, Laos and Uzbekistan to EV plants in Turkey and Thailand. They also include solar panel manufacturing in Saudi Arabia and the US.

…

Globally, suspicions remain in some countries about the true intention of Chinese green investment. These countries also fear that allowing local manufacturing may price out domestic clean-tech competitors, and they have labour concerns such as ensuring local employment and fair employment practices.

…

In the past, some investments under China’s Belt and Road Initiative were criticised for hiring only imported Chinese workers and accused of being debt traps for the host nation.

But the majority of clean-tech investment these days is by private Chinese companies, not state-owned enterprises.

…

The clean-tech sector is a major contributor to China’s economy, adding a record 13.6 trillion yuan (S$2.5 trillion) to its economy in 2024, or just above 10 per cent of the nation’s gross domestic product. This could rise further in 2025, according to a recent report by Crea.

The nation is by far the largest investor in renewable energy. It added a record 356GW of wind and solar capacity in 2024.

That same year, China’s combined solar and wind power capacity hit a new record of 1,407GW, surpassing its 2030 target of 1,200GW six years early. By contrast, the second-largest renewable energy producer, the US, trails with just over 370GW of total solar and onshore wind capacity.

Geopolitically, China’s dominance amplifies its soft power. Through initiatives such as the Global Energy Interconnection, it aims to link grids worldwide, exporting surplus renewable energy and technology to allies and developing nations.

In South-east Asia, Africa and beyond, China pitches itself as a climate advocate, not a leader – a nuanced stance that sidesteps global obligations while expanding influence.

To do that, it needs to dominate the entire supply chain, which includes securing supplies of nickel in Indonesia and lithium in Australia, and buying mines in Africa. But there are also environmental concerns about deforestation and pollution associated with mining these materials, especially the quarrying and processing of nickel ore in Indonesia, which has angered environmental groups.

China also dominates the global processing of critical minerals. The nation primarily wants to be the “global businessman” for now, said Mr Li, the climate analyst.

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Those stupid Europeans, and Japanese, and South Koreans should understand that there’s no way to appease the Orange Retard. Yes, they need the support of US troops, so they’re keen to bend, yield, be submissive, and kiss his ass. But when Trump repeats that this is about “Trade, Trade Barriers, Tariffs, Currency Manipulation, and Non Monetary Tariffs,” (his capitalization) he sets a too high bar. A “trade barrier” is also the EU regulatory ban on hormone-treated beef and chlorine-washed chicken. The only way Trump would agree to stop fucking us in the ass would be if we agreed to purchase American cars exclusively and to eat hormone-treated beef and chlorine-washed chicken. “Non-monetary tariffs” are a hallucination of his sick mind. “Non-tariff barriers” is what he probably means, and they include the previously mentioned health regulations.

So, I’m saying it again: only China can put this retard “out of service.”

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Here’s how the US seems to have started a peculiar hybrid trade war with China: Microsoft ended commercial services for some clients in China! South China Morning Post (also on MSN):

Guangzhou-based Sun Yat-sen University sent a notice to faculty and students on Tuesday night stating that Microsoft 365 services – including OneDrive, OneNote, and SharePoint – will cease operations on Thursday afternoon. “Please log in to Microsoft 365 as soon as possible to retrieve personal data and files,” the university’s network and information centre said in its email, which was seen by the South China Morning Post.

A staff member on the university’s IT help desk said it was Microsoft’s choice to terminate the school’s business account.

The move comes just days after BGI Group, a leading Chinese genomics company, suddenly lost access to its own Microsoft services, including the Outlook email system and OneDrive cloud storage platform. Two employees of the company noted that the company was caught off guard by the sudden service suspension, which forced it to scramble for alternatives, including the emergency use of the WPS Office suite, from Beijing-based Kingsoft. The termination of service was first reported by Nikkei Asia.

Microsoft did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Wednesday. It has not made any public statements explaining the reason for the suspensions.

BGI Group has been a target of US authorities. Several of its subsidiaries have been added to the US Commerce Department’s trade blacklist in recent years.

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And here’s the new PM of Canada, ready to kiss Trump’s ass:

What a world.

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I forgot to add that China slapped restrictions on 18 US firms over Trump tariffs:

Beijing added 12 U.S. companies to a control list that prohibits exports of dual-use items and another six to its “unreliable entities” list, which allows Beijing to take punitive actions against foreign entities, according to commerce ministry statements.

The names of the first set of 12 companies can be found here (in Chinese) and here (in English). They include defense contractors, drone technology firms, and communication system developers. The other 6 companies (here, in Chinese) were added to the “unreliable entity list” over “arms sales or military cooperation with Taiwan.” Reuters adds that the US drone manufacturer Skydio was already sanctioned by Beijing in October, also over sales to Taiwan.

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One more China Daily editorial (a fresh one): Entire world should act to end Washington’s attempted looting:

Including the additional hike yesterday, the punitive tariffs the US administration has levied on imports from China have soared to 125 percent.

Given that US President Donald Trump announced the latest move on the grounds he has failed to see the desired capitulation from China, the ab irato nature of the tariffs — a Latin phrase used in law to describe a decision or action that is motivated by hatred or anger instead of reason — is evident.

As far as the trade war his administration has initiated is concerned, it is not a question of which side will blink first, it is a question of principles.

The president and his administration are trying to coerce the entire world into accepting the falsehood that the United States has been — hitherto unwittingly, presumably — ripped off, not just by China, but by the entire world in the past decades, so it is justifiable for the US to now seek payback.

…

It is the mindset of rogues.

…

With the US administration demonstrating that it will not abide by the established rules and it will make new ones up as it goes along, China will undoubtedly make more overtures to expand its economic and trade cooperation with more countries on the basis of equality and mutual interest, so that the world mall is protected from the US’ looting.

China has already shown its credentials as a strong defender of the global trade system under the framework of the World Trade Organization. It is this globalized trading system, from which countries, including the US, have benefited, that has laid the foundation for the development of the global economy. It is under this globalized economic system that the current global industry and supply chains have been continuously optimized for the common development of all countries.

Through its coercive tariffs, the US administration is not just trying to bully the entire world in a bid to preen the US’ alpha male primacy, but also seeking to disrupt and distort the global industry and supply chains to give an anabolic steroid-type boost to its economic muscles. If the entire world caves in to the tariffs, the global economic system under the framework of the WTO will crumble, and there will be a free-for-all scramble to take advantage of the weaker.

To defend globalization that is underpinned by multilateralism and free trade, and to safeguard the world order under the framework of the United Nations, countries must make a decisive effort to uphold an interconnected and interdependent global economy in the face of the US administration’s demented demolition derby. By standing united against the US administration’s smash-and-grab actions that take a wrecking ball to the previously negotiated deals that have been underpinned by the principles of fair trade, economies can collectively reaffirm their commitment to fostering an environment conducive to sustainable economic growth and development.

The US too can be a constructive contributor to this or can continue to behave like a bitter and angry man shaking his fist at a world he no longer understands.

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The show goes on! China will raise tariffs on all US goods to 125%, up from 84%, effective Saturday, April 12. From the announcement in Chinese:

starting from April 12, 2025 … from 84% to 125%. Given that at the current tariff level, there is no market acceptance for US goods exported to China, if the US continues to impose tariffs on Chinese goods exported to the US, China will ignore it.

A second statement added:

Even if the US continues to impose higher tariffs, it will no longer make economic sense and will become a joke in the history of the world’s economy. At the current tariff level, there is no market acceptance for US goods exported to China. If the US continues to play the tariff numbers game, China will ignore it. However, if the US insists on continuing to substantially infringe on China’s interests, China will resolutely counterattack and fight to the end.

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BBC’s Stephen McDonell, reporting from Beijing: Why Beijing is not backing down on tariffs:

China’s leaders would say that they are not inclined to cave in to a bully – something its government has repeatedly labelled the Trump administration as – but it also has a capacity to do this way beyond any other country on Earth.

Before the tariff war kicked in, China did have a massive volume of sales to the US but, to put it into context, this only amounted to 2% of its GDP.

…

Beijing is not going to surrender.

China’s leader Xi Jinping told the visiting Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez on Friday that his country and the European Union should “jointly resist the unilateral bullying practices” of the Trump administration.

Sanchez, in turn, said that China’s trade tensions with the US should not impede its cooperation with Europe.

…

Next week Xi will visit Malaysia, Vietnam and Cambodia. These are all countries which have been hit hard by Trump’s tariffs.

His ministers have been meeting counterparts from South Africa, Saudi Arabia and India, talking up greater trade co-operation.

In addition, China and the EU are reportedly in talks about potentially removing European tariffs on Chinese cars, to be replaced by a minimum price instead, to rein in a new round of dumping.

In short, wherever you look, you can see that China has options.

The article depicts the tit-for-tat tariff increases with correct values, taking into account the 20% fentanyl-related tariff imposed in two steps by the delusional Trump:

But what surprised me was the “2% of its GDP” value for China’s exports to the US. I asked DeepSeek, with web search enabled, and it found 38 relevant results. It concluded to ~2.3% of GDP for 2023, and a rough estimation of 2.5-3% for 2024. In 2022, China exported $582.76 billion worth of goods to the U.S., accounting for 16.22% of China’s total exports.

By exploring the provided URLs, I noticed articles that put Mao in an unfavorable light and who mentioned “the authoritarian leaders in Beijing,” yet they weren’t censored by DeepSeek: China is ready to ‘eat bitterness’ in the trade war. What about the US?, by the American think-tank Atlantic Council. Also, in WaPo: Trump’s tariff blitz could hardly have come at a worse time for China. And here’s a chart with China’s exports to the US vs. its exports to the rest of the world.

On the other hand, historically, China was the largest buyer of US soybeans, accounting for about half of US soybean exports. However, since the 2018 trade war, China turned to Brazil, which now supplies ~73% of China’s soybean imports, so the US is now the second-largest supplier of soybeans for China. You can find some charts in Want to understand the US-China trade war? Start with soybeans and batteries. “China is betting that targeting soybeans will be a pain point for the White House: US soybean farmers are an important political constituency.” “If the United States and China move forward with hard decoupling, the US battery-storage sector will face immediate pain.”

To be continued. Beijing is not going to surrender.

Newsweek vs. China

Newsweek is a mixed bag: sometimes slightly left-leaning, some other times driven toward sensationalism and click-driven content, while officially aiming to cover global issues with depth and balance. Here’s what I read today on its website.

● Why China’s Rare Earth Curbs Could Devastate US Defense Industry

The idea is that the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program, which presents the F-47 as the successor to the F-22 Raptor, depends heavily on the materials China produces, namely medium and heavy rare earths, including samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium and yttrium.

These minerals are needed for high-performance magnets and actuators. Metals like titanium, tungsten, and niobium are also essential for structural strength, heat resistance, and stealth coatings.

“China’s export controls on key medium and heavy rare earth elements pose significant risks to US national security, defense manufacturing, and high-tech industries,” said Jamie Underwood from the SFA-Oxford consultancy in a press release on April 5.

He noted how the elements on China’s list are needed for high-performance permanent magnets for advanced missile systems and directed energy weapons.

They are relied on by more than just the defense industry; they underpin the creation of computer chips and electric cars. China’s move means it can restrict export licenses it issues, giving it a weapon equal to those made from the minerals it controls, which it has wielded before.

In 2010, China halted rare-earth exports to Japan following tensions between the countries following a boat collision in disputed waters near the Senkaku islands. In July 2023, China restricted exports of gallium and germanium, used in chips, radars, and satellites, in what was seen as a response to American restrictions on technology sales and transfers.

Moreover, “On March 20, Trump signed an executive order that he said would boost American mineral production … The order said 70 percent of U.S. rare earths come from China but also noted that Iran and Russia control large mineral deposits.”

In 2024, China produced 69.2% of the global rare earth elements. So yes, China does have some leverage.

● Watch Out for Physical Sabotage by Chinese Spies in the U.S. | Opinion

This is abject. Mind you, I’m not saying it cannot happen; it’s just not the proper way to put it.

● Trump’s Life’s Work Culminates in Confronting Communist China | Opinion

Another bellicose, belligerent piece.

Trump has not just been outspoken on the issue of trade with China—he has been proven correct.

Ever since Richard Nixon’s fateful trip to visit Mao Zedong in Beijing in 1972, American elites of all political stripes promised that welcoming China into the global economy would be good for all parties involved. American consumers, we were reliably informed, would get cheaper and more abundant goods; American exporters would get a massive and exciting new market to peddle their wares; and the Chinese people themselves would soon reap the rewards of the “political liberalization” that could only come about through “economic liberalization.” This was the dominant thinking when Nixon visited China over a half-century ago, when the George W. Bush administration welcomed China into the World Trade Organization in 2001, and when Barack Obama hosted and toasted Xi Jinping at the White House in 2015.

Suffice it to say it hasn’t exactly all worked out according to plan.

In Shanghai in 2022, amid the communist country’s interminable COVID-19 lockdowns, government drones with loudspeakers blasted: “Control your soul’s thirst for freedom. Do not open your windows and sing.” Chinese companies have engaged in serial intellectual property theft, brazenly stealing American companies’ trade secrets and illegally repackaging them for export at heavily subsidized prices.

TikTok, one particularly problematic Chinese export, is mental fentanyl designed to addict the Western masses and dupe them into poisonous ideologies—and Communist Party spyware, to boot. Speaking of (actual) fentanyl, China is largely responsible for that particular drug killing hundreds of thousands of vulnerable young Americans. Meanwhile, China sends “spy balloons” across the North American continent and routinely allies with the worst state actors on the planet. And if that weren’t bad enough, America’s manufacturing base and national security-critical supply chain infrastructure have been decimated—by China.

For far too long, elites have led America to disaster when it comes to trade with China. They have acted in myopic and ruinous fashion, bringing calamity to the nation they purport to love. America’s trade war with the rogue Chinese superpower must happen. The Chinese Communist Party must be crushed—and there is no one better to crush them than the White House-dwelling class traitor par excellence, Donald Trump. Godspeed, Mr. President.

Oh, my. Putting the COVID-19 lockdowns and the intellectual property theft in the same paragraph is more than a non sequitur; it’s stupid. Since when has Newsweek become Trump’s mouthpiece? This obsession with fentanyl. How about the mass retardation of the Americans? Nobody forces fentanyl on them! And the same can be said about TikTok.