❶ Putin: “We offer Kyiv to resume direct talks without any preconditions starting from May 15 in Istanbul.”

❷ Zelenskyy, take 1: “It is a positive sign that the Russians have finally begun to consider ending the war. … And the very first step in truly ending any war is a ceasefire. There is no point in continuing the killing even for a single day. We expect Russia to confirm a ceasefire – full, lasting, and reliable – starting tomorrow, May 12th, and Ukraine is ready to meet.”

❸ Trump: “President Putin of Russia doesn’t want to have a Cease Fire Agreement with Ukraine, but rather wants to meet on Thursday, in Turkey, to negotiate a possible end to the BLOODBATH. Ukraine should agree to this, IMMEDIATELY. At least they will be able to determine whether or not a deal is possible, and if it is not, European leaders, and the U.S., will know where everything stands, and can proceed accordingly! I’m starting to doubt that Ukraine will make a deal with Putin, who’s too busy celebrating the Victory of World War ll, which could not have been won (not even close!) without the United States of America. HAVE THE MEETING, NOW!!!”

❹ Zelenskyy, take 2: “We await a full and lasting ceasefire, starting from tomorrow, to provide the necessary basis for diplomacy. There is no point in prolonging the killings. And I will be waiting for Putin in Türkiye on Thursday. Personally. I hope that this time the Russians will not look for excuses.”

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Putin will not be there.

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I wonder what made this possible.

It most definitely wasn’t the “ultimatum” issued by Macron, Starmer, Merz and Tusk in Kyiv. That was one of the most ridiculous actions initiated by Macron. Europe cannot impress as long as the EU still purchases Russian gas, and it cannot free itself from it until at least 2027. Sanctions over sanctions, and still buying from Putler? C’mon, you’re pathetic.

The drop in oil prices? This wasn’t of Uncle Sam’s making! Some analysts consider that the trade war meant that the expected growth in Chinese oil demand halved. But OPEC+ (OPEC and its allies) decided to increase, not decrease, the group’s oil production, or to unwind some previously announced cuts! It looks like some OPEC+ members have been exceeding the agreed quotas; so the increase in production, even if this brings down prices, is “an effort to pressure OPEC+ member countries including Iraq and Kazakhstan to comply with quotas.” So one can say that, because of Iraq and Kazakhstan, Russia is taking an unexpected hit. If anything, the US is also affected.

Let’s look further. Did Xi advise Putin to become “a good boy”? Highly unlikely, if you ask me.

Pope Leo XIV, who in 2022 explicitly condemned (at minute 42) Russia’s war against Ukraine, saying it was “a true invasion, imperialist in nature, where Russia seeks to conquer territory for reasons of power,” where’s Pope Francis never labeled Russia as the aggressor nor did he condemn Putin? You must be kidding me.

And Trump has never scared Putin: he’s a buffoon.

It must have been a combination of factors.

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No, I don’t believe for a second that Russia could not continue to support an ongoing war. Putin is ready to sacrifice himself up to the last Russian!

As a matter of fact, Russia will keep the “war economy” logic even after peace is achieved. The reborn Russian imperialism is here to stay. What with Europe going itself back to reinforcing its military capabilities, there’s no turning back to the “old normal” before 2050.

Maybe China played a role, however. Even if China reaches a trade agreement with the US (an 80% tariff on Chinese goods “seems right,” said Trump), the world trade is still broken. China needs the rest of the world to export to, and the rest of the world needs China to trade with. But for this to happen, even with SAFE and “Readiness 2030” (formerly “ReArm Europe Plan”) not going away, peace is needed. It’s the only way to increase the world trade!

And let’s not forget that Russia would like to increase its trade with the US. Trump seems to want it too! But for this to happen, the war must end, so that the sanctions could be lifted.

Then, it might have been indeed the last time Trump said he wants to “help” with the peace. His “help” is mostly for Russia. And Russia needs it to legitimize the final peace plan. Ukraine will have a lot to lose, but hey, if the US said it’s all right, who can say otherwise?

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Europe will not stay at the negotiations table. After Ukraine, the EU plus the UK are the big losers here. And no, there will be no peacekeeping troops in Ukraine — not from any NATO member country, with the only possible exception of Turkey. That’s the most we could get.

But Ukraine will lose everything. All the regions that are under Russian control, be it only partial: Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia. There’s absolutely no question about that. And Crimea is a moot point.

You see, this is not a total or absolute war, or a war of annihilation like WW2. In WW2, the Allies’ victory required the complete defeat of Nazi Germany. The capture of Berlin and the toppling or death of Hitler were non-negotiable conditions for ending the war. Dismantling the Nazi regime entirely was mandatory.

The war in Ukraine is limited and attritional, no matter how horrendous it looks like. Peace can be achieved without conquering the attacker’s capital or toppling its government. Ukraine seeks survival and territorial integrity, not Russia’s destruction — something it couldn’t achieve, anyway.

This is why Ukraine’s incursion in the Kursk oblast was and is a huge mistake. The illusory expectation for Russia to divert relevant forces there so that Ukraine could take back some of its occupied territories has proven to me a judgment error. I said that from the beginning. It’s also ridiculous, in a war of liberation, to occupy the enemy’s territory when you’re not able to free anything of your legitimate soil! Furthermore, attacking Moscow with drones is dumb and counterproductive: it’s not from Moscow that the drones come towards Ukraine and Kyiv. Putin made no secret that he wants Zelenskyy gone, and the peace treaty will almost certainly force elections in Ukraine, so that Russia could exert its influence (it’s called hybrid war) to have a pro-Russia future Ukrainian president. But the Kursk adventure cannot bring any leverage to Ukraine. The fact that the Ukrainian military has killed North Korean troops in the legitimate territory of Russia when it wasn’t necessary in order to liberate its own territory could be seen as an aggression, even from a neutral standpoint.

Oh, the irony.

  • The Kursk operation, meant to shift the war’s momentum, mirrored Russia’s own miscalculations in 2022, when it expected a quick victory.
  • By mirroring Russia’s imperialist tactics through the attempt of holding foreign territory, Ukraine has undermined the moral clarity of its liberation fight.
  • The symbolic strikes on Moscow (which had very little practical effect), while they might have boosted the Ukrainian morale (not by much), have almost certainly strengthened Putin’s domestic support by rallying Russians against a “foreign threat”!

Ukraine should have focused on trying to recapture parts of its legitimate territory.

And, let me point again to the absurdity of this twist: Ukraine, fighting a defensive war against a nuclear-armed aggressor, could face accusations of “aggression” for killing foreign troops on the aggressor’s soil!

Ukraine has no bargaining chips in the peace talks. There will be no “we’ll leave Kursk if you leave Kherson.” Zelenskyy got soft in the head.

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What’s next?

If Zelenskyy keeps rejecting Putin’s claims, I’m afraid he might start losing the support of his own population. Everyone is tired by this war that goes nowhere, if it’s not more suffering and many more deaths.

Europe is already divided, and this is not just about Hungary and Slovakia. Beyond the “core” formed by France, the UK, Germany, and Poland, nobody feels like keeping the pressure on Russia and continuing to support Ukraine militarily. Sweden, Finland, and the Baltics are focusing on their own defense.

It’s still a miracle to me that Zelenskyy stopped conditioning any peace talks of a complete ceasefire. Maybe he received a phone call warning him that the American military help would really stop coming, or that Starlink would stop working in Ukraine. Or maybe Ukraine just cannot keep going this way indefinitely for lack of human resources to deploy to the frontline.

Either way, Zelenskyy will have to sign a peace treaty. It won’t be a capitulation, but it will very much look like one.

Europe failed, and Russia wins. We were fucking idiots. “Wandel durch Handel” (or “Wandel durch Annäherung”) started in practice in the early 1970, through the gas pipeline deals where West German companies supplied pipes for Soviet gas exports. Later, everyone started to love Putin. When Gerhard Schröder dies, we need to establish tours to spit on his grave.

Nobody acted decisively when Crimea was seized in 2014. Subsequently, all the help provided since 2022 was bound to be too little, too late, half-hearted, and useless.

It’s all our fault. Europe always had incompetent leaders. “Ode to Joy” is a ridiculous anthem for a failed continent.

Oh, and meanwhile, we’re still kissing Netanyahu’s ass and supporting his genocide, which is a shame.