Donald Trump’s administration began “major combat operations” against Iran, allegedly to disable “imminent threats” to the United States. Bibi Netanyahu’s regime doubled down with “preemptive strikes” against Iran, also citing existential threats from Iran’s nuclear and missile programs.

We all love wars, don’t we?

There are two sides in this conflict. Or maybe more.

The victim: Iran

A country that replaced a corrupt yet livable regime with an Islamic republic. Almost nobody in Iran sides with the government, but until a couple of years ago, despite the sanctions, life in Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s country was passable. That is, if you accept the fact that since 1983, the hijab has been mandatory in public places.

But after the Gašt-e Eršâd, or morality police, killed Mahsa Amini in 2022, and the ensuing civil unrest and protests have been countered with a bloody crackdown, things were never to be the same again.

The wave of demonstrations that started on December 28, 2025, allegedly triggered by the acute economic deterioration and the collapse of the national currency, has led to an even greater massacre, the extent of which is still unknown.

I learned that similar protests had erupted in December 2017 and in November 2019. Apparently, Iranians care more about their pockets than about human rights, because the 2022 protests were the only ones that were not rooted in economic hardship. Let’s not forget that there are UN sanctions against Iran, so if anyone there dies from hunger, the international community bears a part of the responsibility. (The same applies to Cuba, except that the United States is the only country to have imposed an embargo on Cuba.)

The attackers: the United States and Israel

This time, the US is not “the good old imperialistic US.” It’s much worse: it’s the military extension of Donald Trump’s senile dreams of becoming Emperor of Earth.

Donald Trump did not kidnap Nicolás Maduro because Venezuela had a democratic deficit. He wanted Venezuela’s oil.

Donald Trump did not kidnap Nicolás Maduro because he was elected in rigged elections; if this were the case, why didn’t he kidnap Vladimir Putin?

Donald Trump wants Greenland. Donald Trump just said there could be a “friendly takeover of Cuba”!

As the BBC notes, “The decades-long US economic embargo on Cuba has been ramped up like never before: US President Donald Trump has threatened tariffs on any nation which sends oil to the stricken island.” And, “None of Cuba’s traditional allies – whether Mexico, Russia, China, Vietnam or Iran – have stepped up to fill the void left by Venezuela.”

Domestically, Donald Trump’s administration has brought the country to the brink of civil war. The ICE has become something between the SA (Sturmabteilung) and the SS (Schutzstaffel). The hunt for “illegals” made that country a place to avoid even by foreign tourists.

Czar Donald rules by executive orders and plans to further disregard the Constitution by having a third term in office. Meanwhile, he might or might not declare a national emergency to control November’s midterm elections.

Either way, he’s a convicted felon, an unconvicted pedophile, and he was instrumental in the January 6, 2021, United States Capitol attack.

He hallucinates about the number of wars he believes to have ended. He wants all the prizes and medals in the world, especially the Nobel Peace Prize, but would accept the made-up sham by FIFA.

He’s dictatorial, unpredictable, with no morals, sociopathic, paranoid, mentally retarded, and senile, yet he believes himself to be a genius.

I’d rather trust Satan than Donald Trump.

He puts pressure on Ukraine to accept Putin’s maximalist conditions to end the war. Ironically, if Russia pretended to have peace talks in Geneva (a show meant for Trump’s eyes), Trump, too, pretended to have negotiations with Iran in the same Geneva, but it was only to fool the Iranians.

As for Israel, the genocidal government of Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu only made Israel’s illegal, illegitimate, and murderous actions in Gaza and in the West Bank even more criminal. He’s also a corrupt individual whose immunity from justice was based on the war against the people in Gaza.

Furthermore, why should the US always do whatever Israel wants it to do? And why should the US have all those military bases in the Middle East?

The nukes

I was never able to understand why only the US, Russia, France, the UK, China, Israel, India, and Pakistan are allowed to have nuclear weapons. The DPRK should not have nukes, because the Kim dynasty is that of mentally derailed individuals, and Iran should not have nukes, either, because…

…because Israel doesn’t want it, and because Israel and the US have persuaded the “international community” to deny Iran the right to build nuclear weapons and even to sanction Iran for its nuclear program!

But Iran does not have any nukes. Zero. Nada. Zilch.

Meanwhile, Israel does have an undisclosed number of nukes, being the only country that officially doesn’t have them, but of course it does.

Why should I trust Israel? Why should I trust India? Why should I trust Pakistan, especially now that it’s “at open war” with Afghanistan?

Nobody should have nuclear weapons. But once they do, Israel is the most opaque nuclear power: nobody knows the extent of their nuclear arsenal.

Iran, I’ll stress it one more time, never managed to build any nuclear head. Israel and the US have lied for decades, periodically claiming that “Iran is two weeks away from building a nuclear bomb.” Each time, these two weeks become years and years, but there is still no sign of nukes in Iran.

Retard-in-chief Trump said the previous US attacks “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program, yet today Iran is an “imminent threat” to the United States and an “existential threat” to Israel?

It was all a smokescreen. Reuters: “An Israeli defence official said the operation had been planned for months in coordination with Washington, and that the launch date was decided weeks ago.”

This is why I cannot side with these guys, either.

The real victim

The real victim is us. Not the “international world order” per se, but us, every single one of us who’s not an American nor an Israeli.

Donald Trump shitted on everyone, from NATO allies to every other country on Earth. He shitted on the US Constitution, too, but that’s not my problem.

Bibi is another disgrace for humankind. But most Europeans decided to stick their tongues up two glorious asses: those of Donald and of Bibi. Those two criminals like being ass-licked.

All we can do is sit and wait. Even if the ayatollahs’ regime in Tehran falls, I don’t expect democracy to flourish there or anywhere else.

Also, correct me if I’m wrong, but this new war, with or without the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz and with or without affecting third-party oil refineries in the region, is bound to cause an oil price spike. A sharp spike in crude prices would hurt almost everyone, except that it would help… Russia?

Now, you will excuse me, but I need to keep pedaling.

This school was an existential threat to Israel and the US.

UPDATE: Probabilities

I just asked Grok:

Based on what we know so far about TODAY’S joint attack of the US and Israel of Iran, what’s the most probable outcome?
The Supreme Leader might or might not be dead.
The US might keep attacking or might leave Israel alone for now. Trump already said he has two options but that, either way, it would take years for Iran to recover.
Even if Iran retaliated and attacked Israel and US military bases in the region, my take is that there will be NO BOOTS ON GROUND.
Therefore, Iran might be left in a state of relative chaos, which is quite dangerous for the region.

It answered (based on 326 sources):

The most probable short-to-medium-term outcome (next days to months) is a sustained US-Israeli air and naval campaign that severely degrades Iran’s military, nuclear, and command capabilities, leaving the regime intact but badly weakened and the country in significant internal disarray—precisely the “relative chaos” you described, with elevated risks for the wider region.

Current Snapshot (as of late Feb 28, 2026)

  • The strikes: Massive, coordinated “Operation Epic Fury” (US) / “Roaring Lion” (Israel). Hundreds of targets hit in waves across Tehran, Isfahan, Qom, etc.: missile sites, air defenses, IRGC bases, nuclear remnants, naval assets, and leadership compounds (including Khamenei’s official residence/office, which satellite imagery shows heavily damaged or partially destroyed).
  • Iranian retaliation: Ballistic missiles and drones launched at Israel (mostly intercepted, light injuries reported) and US-linked bases across the Gulf (Bahrain’s 5th Fleet HQ area hit, strikes on facilities in Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia). Some civilian collateral (e.g., Dubai hotel/residential areas, debris deaths). Limited effectiveness so far; no major US casualties.
  • Leadership: Khamenei’s status is still unconfirmed publicly—he’s cut off from normal contact, and Israeli sources assess he was likely killed or seriously injured in the compound strike. Iran’s Foreign Minister says “as far as I know, alive” (and other top officials too). Several senior IRGC and regime figures are confirmed dead.
  • Trump’s framing: “Major combat operations” are “massive and ongoing” with no fixed end date. Explicit calls for regime change (“when we are finished, take over your government”) and Iranian uprising. He has repeatedly said Iran’s recovery (nuclear/missile infrastructure especially) will take years either way—echoing his pre-strike “two options” framing of a deal or decisive military action.

Most Probable Trajectory

  1. Air campaign continues (days to a few weeks): US/Israel will keep hammering remaining missile stocks, air defenses, nuclear-related sites, and IRGC command to prevent effective retaliation or reconstitution. No credible signs of ground troops (“boots on the ground”)—this is deliberately an air/naval-only operation to avoid a quagmire. Israel may handle more of the later phases while US focuses on high-value targets.
  2. Iranian retaliation stays asymmetric and contained: More missile/drone barrages, possible cyber attacks, mine-laying in the Gulf, and proxy activation (Houthis resuming Red Sea strikes, Iraqi militias hitting US assets). Iran has already threatened the Strait of Hormuz but is unlikely to fully close it (economic suicide). Damage will be painful but not regime-threatening; defenses (US, Israeli, Gulf Arab) will blunt most of it. No full-scale regional war.
  3. Supreme Leader & regime stability:
  • If Khamenei is dead/incapacitated (highest-probability scenario per Israeli intel and the precision of the strike), expect a messy succession. Pre-strike CIA assessments pointed to hardline IRGC elements stepping in quickly rather than moderates or collapse.
  • Short-term: Power struggles, confusion, possible localized unrest or protests (building on late-2025 demonstrations). The regime has survived worse decapitation attempts before via its parallel security structures.
  • Medium-term: Battered but surviving Islamic Republic—more repressive, more reliant on IRGC, economically strained.
  1. Iran left in “relative chaos”: Nuclear and long-range missile programs set back years (Trump’s assessment aligns with prior 2025 strikes). Command-and-control disrupted. Economy already hurting from sanctions/protests; now worse. This creates exactly the dangerous vacuum you flagged: risk of opportunistic terrorism, refugee flows, fragmented proxy networks going rogue, oil-market spikes, and spillover instability in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen. Gulf states are already on edge.

Longer-Term (6–24 months)

  • High likelihood: A weakened Iran forced into de-escalation or negotiations from a position of extreme weakness. No quick “victory parade” regime change (experts across CFR, Atlantic Council etc. are skeptical airstrikes alone will trigger 1979-style collapse without major internal defections). But the strategic threat to Israel/US is durably reduced.
  • Risks: Prolonged tit-for-tat, IRGC hardliners doubling down on proxies, or a more unstable/fragmented Iran exporting chaos. Oil prices and regional security headaches for everyone.

This is not a clean knockout—it’s a high-risk, high-reward gamble (as briefed to Trump) that achieves major degradation at the cost of short-term regional volatility. Your read on no boots, years-long Iranian recovery, and dangerous chaos is spot-on based on everything known right now. The situation is fluid (hours-old operation), so escalation or surprise internal shifts could change the picture fast—but sustained degradation + Iranian resilience + no invasion is the clear baseline probability.