Excerpts from the South China Morning Post’s “Beijing’s policy advisers map out how post-reunification Taiwan could be governed”:

In 2019, President Xi Jinping became the first Chinese leader to publicly call for the exploration of detailed proposals for governing Taiwan after reunification.

Seven years later, the first proposals from a handful of the mainland’s leading research institutes have either been finalised or are nearing completion, the South China Morning Post has learned.

Rather than setting out a single fixed model, scholars involved in those studies told the SCMP there should be different scenarios based on how reunification was achieved, with peaceful reunification granting Taiwan the largest scope of autonomy under Beijing’s “one country, two systems” framework for post-reunification governance.

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Chen [Xiancai, a Taiwan affairs professor at Xiamen University,] said that, given the state of cross-strait relations, one scenario he considered “highly viable” would be forcing Taiwan into reunification talks by applying pressure across the political, military and international arenas.

While this does not represent Beijing’s official policy, Chen said he believed some of the measures had already been employed in recent years, and that a blockade of the island could not be ruled out if deemed necessary in the future.

The sooner they talk, the better the terms

The study led by Chen, the director of the university’s Centre for Taiwan Studies, is among the research projects undertaken by mainland Chinese scholars since Xi’s landmark speech to explore a “two systems” Taiwan.

These projects have not yet been published.

Xi’s call built on the “one country, two systems” model, which was first formulated by former Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping in the late 1970s as a possible solution to the Taiwan question. It has already been implemented in Hong Kong and Macau.

Under the formula, which holds that there is only one China, the island could retain its existing economic and social systems and enjoy a high degree of autonomy after reunification.

In that 2019 speech, Xi reiterated Beijing’s long-standing position that peaceful reunification remained “the best approach”, saying the “one country, two systems” formula was designed “precisely to accommodate Taiwan’s actual conditions”.

Seven years after the speech, Beijing has said little publicly about how it would seek to govern Taiwan following reunification.

However, Tsinghua University and Xiamen University have finalised their studies on the subject this year, with another one conducted by Peking University close to completion, according to academic sources.

The studies do not represent Beijing’s official policy, but serve as a reference for policymaking and offer a rare glimpse into academic discussions about the possible terms of a future settlement across the Taiwan Strait.

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“If reunification were achieved entirely through peaceful means, with the two sides negotiating now, Taiwan’s room to manoeuvre – or the powers and status it might retain – could potentially be greater than those of Hong Kong and Macau,” Chen said.

But if reunification were achieved through what Chen described as “compelled reunification”, Taiwan could be offered a Hong Kong- or Macau-style model, or possibly “even less autonomy” than the two special administrative regions, he said.

“Compelled reunification” – or bitong – is a term coined by mainland scholars to describe an approach between complete peaceful reunification and a full-scale attack.

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“However, if Taiwan does not accept the goodwill offered by the mainland or its policy of peaceful reunification, and instead forces the mainland to resort to military means, Taiwan will have fewer bargaining chips, and its room to manoeuvre will be severely curtailed,” Chen said.

Other heavyweight policy advisers have echoed this point, including Li Yihu, a lawmaker and Taiwan specialist at Peking University, who warned last year that if Taiwan left Beijing no choice but to reunify by force, the island’s autonomy would be the same as an average province.

Discussions among scholars about a detailed plan for Beijing to govern Taiwan have grown in the past month. On September 12, more than 20 mainland scholars, led by Wang Jianmin of Minnan Normal University in Fujian province, reached a 12-point consensus on a plan for Taiwan at a seminar in Beijing.

Their proposal included maintaining a People’s Liberation Army presence on the island and introducing patriotic education.

However, another scholar, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Taiwan-related academic research on the mainland was far more diverse than the 12-point proposal, which did not represent the full range of views among mainland academics.

The discussion was joined by Li Ci-ze, an associate professor at Taiwan’s National Changhua University of Education. In a proposal published in August, Li argued that after peaceful reunification, Taiwan should be able to retain its direct elections for the island’s top executive official and legislature while “fully retaining” its opposition parties.

Beijing said it was pleased to see the proposal, without hinting at whether it agreed with the details.

Chang Ya-chung, head of the Taiwan-based Sun Yat-sen School advocacy group, said the two sides should take gradual steps towards signing a peace deal before discussing the details of post-reunification governance.

He made the comments during his trip to Beijing to attend last month’s Xiangshan Forum security conference, and later elaborated on them in an article.

When asked about Chang’s remarks, Beijing’s Taiwan Affairs Office said it welcomed suggestions from Taiwan’s people, and “the sooner and more extensively” the Taiwanese held such discussions, the more benefits they would see.

‘Compelled reunification’

The strategy of “compelled reunification” is highly feasible under current cross-strait conditions, according to Chen, though Beijing authorities have never publicly acknowledged the idea.

“What we mean by ‘compelled reunification’ is essentially the use of certain measures to shape, guide or pressure the Taiwan authorities towards reunification,” Chen said.

He argued that this was a special form of “peaceful reunification”.

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“Compelled reunification does not necessarily mean a military conflict. It would not necessarily be like the Russia-Ukraine war, where the PLA would have to enter Taiwan or launch a landing operation on the island.”

A blockade could also be one possible form of pressure under such a scenario, he added.

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Diplomatically, Beijing has stepped up efforts to restrict Taiwan’s international space. A total of 10 countries have cut off diplomatic ties with Taipei since 2016, when the island’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party came to power.

In April, Taiwanese leader William Lai Ching-te was forced to postpone his visit to eSwatini, the island’s only remaining diplomatic ally in Africa, because three countries along the flight route – Seychelles, Mauritius and Madagascar – revoked flight permits for Lai’s aircraft, according to Taipei.

Integration push

The idea of “one country, two systems” appears to be highly unpopular in Taiwan. More than 80 per cent of people in Taiwan oppose the “one country, two systems” formula, according to a poll in August conducted by Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council.

However, mainland scholar Chen argued that peaceful reunification remained possible, saying Beijing was seeking to integrate Taiwan with the mainland and gradually shape public opinion in favour of reunification.

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“Our approach to reunification is to win people’s support. We are not simply trying to work through individual political parties,” he said.

He added that public opinion in Taiwan could ultimately change policy, though it would take time.

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Wang Huning, Beijing’s fourth-ranked official and its top official overseeing Taiwan affairs, last year outlined what he described as “seven betters” that Taiwan could enjoy through reunification, covering areas including infrastructure, the economy, energy and disaster relief.

The remarks marked a rare effort by a senior Chinese leader to explicitly spell out the potential benefits of reunification for people in Taiwan.

Beijing has in recent years promoted greater cross-strait “integration”, particularly through pilot projects in the coastal province of Fujian.

These initiatives have been presented as potential models for future cross-strait arrangements while also serving as a means of increasing pressure on Taipei, according to Chen.

For example, construction of the mainland section of a bridge between the Fujian city of Xiamen and the Taiwan-controlled island of Quemoy is nearing completion. The necessary connecting infrastructure is already in place for it to eventually link up with Quemoy, also known as Kinmen.

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“It’s like dating. If a man wants to pursue a woman, shouldn’t he take the initiative and buy her a coffee?” he said.

“We have the financial resources and the machinery. We can get these projects built, continually putting pressure on Taiwan while making people in Kinmen feel that they stand to benefit.”